INVESTING TO GET MARKET BEATING RETURNS, CREATES FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE WITH NOUGHTS ON

WHICH IS THE BETTER WAY TO CREATE WEALTH FROM THE STOCK MARKET.

INVESTING OR TRADING?

The Great British Trade Off competition is all about finding the answer. Humbug is the investor, Fagin the trader.

We thought the best way to find out was to actually do it by putting a reasonable sum of money at risk.

We each started the competition in April 2017 with one hundred thousand pounds of our own money, the winner will be the one with the largest balance in April 2022.

We report our progress each week, discussing in some detail what we’ve done and why.

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

YEAR TWO APRIL the 5th to July the 27th 2018

HUMBUG

RUNNING TOTAL: £99,584.00 an increase of £7065 + 7.6%

FAGIN

RUNNING TOTAL: £142,956.00 an increase of £8756 + 6.5%

We’re not just competing with ourselves, we’re also very determined to take higher than average returns from the markets.

NEITHER OF US DOES FRUGAL

We both think the best route for us is to generate superior returns and if we can, these will fund a good level of financial independence and a rich retirement.

MILLIONS OF PEOPLE HAVE MADE MILLIONS OF POUNDS FROM THE STOCK MARKET, WE INTEND TO JOIN THEIR RANKS.

Can we do it? Who knows, but whether we can or we can’t, the journey is likely to be interesting to say the least.

We’d welcome you following along, but please don’t copy us. We’re not tipsters offering you advice, we’re simply reporting what we’ve done or plan to do and expressing our personal views.

Always do your own research.

 

 

LATEST POSTS

INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT
HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY SEPTEMBER 21st 2018

To read more………………….click here
INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT
HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY SEPTEMBER 14th 2018

To read more……………………………..click here

 

INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT
HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY SEPTEMBER 7th 2018

To read more…………………………click here

 

 

INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT

HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY 31st AUGUST 2018

FEATURE POINTS

Great British Trade Off portfolio is up £1710 on the week.

The portfolio is up 9.1% since April, at an all time high. I’m 63% invested.

Once again nothing to buy or sell this week, but I remain jittery and watchful.

Making hay while the sun shines, staying invested as per my system and not trying to be clever and overriding it with with what I think.

TO READ MORE………………CLICK HERE

 

INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT

HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY 24th AUGUST 2018

FEATURE POINTS

Great British Trade Off portfolio is up £329 on the week.

The portfolio is up 7.3% since April, I’m 63% invested.

Nothing to buy or sell in the coming week, although I’m jittery and watching things closely.

I said last week I was off to watch paint dry to get some excitement as there was nothing to do with the portfolio. I didn’t find any paint to watch, but I got my excitement by saving a life………………………………

TO READ MORE………………CLICK HERE

 

INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT

HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY 17th AUGUST 2018

FEATURE POINTS

Great British Trade Off portfolio is down £676 on the week.

The drive for financial independence is still on track, as the portfolio is up 6.9% since April. I’m currently 63% invested.

Sold my tiny holding in the Marlborough UK Micro-Cap Growth Fund for a profit.

Over-rode my system and didn’t increase my Japanese holdings as I had planned to do.

Nothing to buy or sell in the coming week.

Down £676 on the week, no big deal but today rained on my party somewhat as all the losses came in the last 24 hours. This time yesterday I was slightly up.

TO READ MORE……………………..CLICK HERE

 

INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT

HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY 10th AUGUST 2018

FEATURE POINTS

Breaking my own rule about taking profits/cutting a loss last week has come and bitten my botty, albeit the damage is minimal.

I’ve taken the lesson on board and won’t be doing it again, next time there could be real damage (think Fagin and HGM)

Great British Trade Off portfolio is up £1626 on the week.

Portfolio up 7.7% since April and not a million miles away from it’s all time high. I’m currently 64% invested.

One sale for the coming week (the one I should have done last week), one purchase on a top up signal and one full buying signal I’m going to ignore.

I’ve said it before, and will bet my life I say it again before the end comes (unless the grim reaper has other plans for me………………………..

TO READ MORE…………….CLICK HERE

 

 

TRADING FOR FINANCIAL FREEDOM

FAGIN’S TRADING DIARY 6th AUGUST 2018

FEATURE POINTS

Trade in Highland Gold Mining (HGM) has gone badly wrong.

Looking for an exit point to minimize the loss. Believe I’ve spotted it.

Realize I’ve been what our US friends call ‘A DICK FOR A TICK’

Need to do my homework not just tonight, but every night.

My GBTO portfolio is down -£2602 on the week.

However the portfolio is up 6.5% since the start of the second year of the Great British Trade Off.

Dignity, and even holiness too, sometimes, are more questions of coat and waistcoat than some people imagine. Charles Dickens.

It’s going to take more than a coat or a waistcoat to………………………………

TO READ MORE……………………CLICK HERE

 

 

 

INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT

HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY 3rd AUGUST 2018

FEATURE  POINTS

Naughty, I broke my rule about taking profits/stopping losses, seem to have got away with it, best I don’t do it again.

It’s not been a fun week, my Great British Trade Off portfolio is down £2062

Only one trade for the coming week. Selling Japan for a loss of circa £210.

Portfolio up 5.9% since the start of the second year of the Great British Trade Off.

WHY HAVE WE GOT A PICTURE OF A SLEEPING CAT AS THE HEADING FOR THIS WEEK’S REPORT?

Simple, firstly I like cats…………………………

TO READ MORE……………CLICK HERE

 

TRADING FOR FINANCIAL FREEDOM

FAGIN’S TRADING DIARY 30th JULY 2018

 In a word, I was too cowardly to do what I knew to be right, as I had been too cowardly to avoid doing what I knew to be wrong. Charles Dickens.

It’s been a difficult yet rewarding time for me this week. Volatility in the US had made me view the market very cautiously. Each day as I checked in I expected to be stopped out or to have to take profits before they bled away, yet my actual trades behaved fairly well.

I’m trying to trade my way to financial freedom using the liquidity that large cap stocks provide. The key for me is making regular steady profits and avoiding large losses. It’s all about risk and reward.

TO READ MORE……………CLICK HERE

 

INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT

HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY 27th JULY 2018

In spite of the ‘Facebook Drama’ and a little local difficulty with the Marlborough UK Micro-Cap Growth Fund it’s been a calm (ish) week for my Great British Trade Off portfolio, which is up slightly on the week.

Calm is good……………………we like calm.

What I’m doing is aggressively investing in funds to create some serious wealth for financial independence and a rich retirement, if and when I ever decide to slow down.

TO READ MORE………………CLICK HERE.

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

INVESTING IN FUNDS USING CHARTS

I simply do not pretend to understand how to do fundamental analysis. I’ve tried I really have. I’ve read books on the subject, looked at the excellent on-line articles on the subject by Phil Oakley at Sharescope, read Paul Scott’s daily share briefing on Stockopedia and even spent over three thousand pounds going on four Robbie Burns courses.

All to no avail. Is it cos I is stupid?…………………

TO READ MORE………………..CLICK HERE

 

TRADING FOR FINANCIAL FREEDOM

FAGIN’S TRADING DIARY 20th JULY 2018

TIME AND TIDE WILL WAIT FOR NO MAN, SAITH THE ADAGE. BUT ALL MEN HAVE TO WAIT FOR TIME AND TIDE. CHARLES DICKENS

The end of another week in the Great British Trade Off and my long positions in Cairn Energy (CNE), Evraz (EVR) and Highland Gold Mining (HGM) are all still open. I am carrying a loss of -£1566……………………………………..

TO READ MORE……………………CLICK HERE

 

INVESTING FOR A RICH RETIREMENT

HUMBUG’S INVESTMENT DIARY 20th JULY 2018

HAPPY, HAPPY, HAPPY. The markets giveth and the markets taketh. This week is giveth. The volatility we’ve had for the last few months is a big worry for me. I’m looking to build some serious wealth across all my investments, although I only report on the £100k that’s in the Great British Trade Off, and too much volatility is hard to cope with.

Like all of us I guess, I invest and put my money at risk because I’m seeking financial independence and the freedom that goes with it. I don’t like gut wrenching huge unpredictable moves taking my money with them. What I like is nice calm steady increases, not wild swings.

But hey we are where we are……………………………

TO READ MORE……………….CLICK HERE

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

FAGIN’S GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF FIRST QUARTER REPORT

STRIVING FOR MARKET BEATING RETURNS

Reflect upon your present blessings – of which every man has many – not on your past misfortunes, of which all men have some. Charles Dickens.

Getting a high value financial independence is no easy trick. I’ve had a mixed opening quarter in the second year of the Great British Trade Off competition.

TO READ MORE……………..CLICK HERE

 

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

THE HUMBUG WEEKLY REPORT 13th JULY 2018

THE BATTLE FOR FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE WITH NOUGHTS ON CONTINUES

It’s been a good week which is great. My running total increased by £1965 Albeit I’ve been caught on the wrong foot and am playing musical chairs with myself.

But i’ts easy enough to be happy and smiley when its going well and as a bonus I’m almost through Friday the13th without a major crisis.

TO READ MORE……………..CLICK HERE

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

HUMBUG’S GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF FIRST QUARTER REPORT

 

I’m plotting and planning to achieve a financial Independence with plenty of noughts on the end of it. Th Great British Trade Off competition is one part of that endeavour.

I must say I’m thoroughly enjoying the GBTO even though I’m being soundly beaten by Fagin. This first quarter of the second year has gone well for me in spite of the sharp correction that happened at the end of June.

TO READ MORE………………….CLICK HERE

 

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

HUMBUG SELLS OUT OF CHINA (FOR NOW)

My red lines are somewhat different to Theresa May’s red lines in that mine mean what they say, whereas her’s are just a bit of spin that means nothing.

TO READ MORE………………CLICK HERE

 

 

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

FAGIN FINDS SOME ENERGY IN THE HOT WEATHER, CAIRN ENERGY TO BE PRECISE

TO READ MORE……………….CLICK HERE

 

 

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

SALE OF LEGG MASON IF JAPAN EQUITY FUND

From Friday’s Great British Trade Off report I said that I was placing a selling order for the Legg Mason IF Japan Equity Fund to protect profits that were rapidly bleeding away.

TO READ MORE…………CLICK HERE

 

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

WHICH IS BETTER? INVESTING OR TRADING?

When your seeking Financial Independence, which is the better way of generating wealth? Is it investing or is it trading?

This is a subject that I’ve recently given a lot of thought to. As the investor I’m currently the loosing candidate in the Great British Trade Off. Which apart from the private pain, is also public humiliation.

CLICK HERE…………………..TO READ MORE

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

The Secret To Financial Independence

The secret to Financial Independence is two words believe it or not,
they are HOW and MUCH.

HOW MUCH………………CLICK HERE TO READ MORE

 

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

HUMBUG IS PISSED OFF WITH BEING FAGIN’S UGLY SISTER

Twice this week I’ve been chatting to people who said they had looked at our blog and enjoyed the battle we’re having with the markets and each other as we look to grow our money and seek financial independence with noughts on.

CLICK HERE………….TO READ MORE

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

THE KEYS TO FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

First of all, is it possible to define FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE? No, I don’t think it is. Because obviously its different strokes for different folks.

A billionaire’s FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE will likely be very different to mine. Mind you one could argue that a billionaire is likely to be financially independent simply because he is a billionaire.

TO READ MORE……………..CLICK HERE

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

THE BROKE BANKER

For the first time on our site we’ve a guest posting from the US. It’s written by Melissa Blevins, of melissablevins.com . Melissa has over 15 years in the financial services industry (banking and real estate) and offers money, blogging and business tips on her blog.

First off, I want to thank Humbug and Fagin for offering me this guest spot on their blog. I love reading about their exploits in the Great British Trade Off.

Today I want to write about saving money, which is something I’m passionate about and is the first step to Financial Independence. I’m going to talk about ways of doing it without even thinking about it.

TO READ MORE…………CLICK HERE

 

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

NOT A LOT HAPPENING

Friday June 22nd 2018. We’re both totally focused on FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE and one with noughts on. So its vital that we only trade when there’s something we should be doing.

WE NEVER EVER EVER TRADE BECAUSE WE’RE BORED, DOING THAT ISN’T THE ROAD TO FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE, ITS THE ROAD TO RUIN.

TO READ MORE…………..CLICK HERE

 

Tuesday 19th June 2018

BAH HUMBUG

MAKE MONEY FROM HOME

This posting is not investment advice in any way shape or form, its simply Humbug’s personal opinions. You should not take it as advice, please do your own research.

Since the start of the GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF I’ve been known as Humbug. Possibly because I own a famous old sweetshop but more likely because I’m such a happy little soul.

TO READ MORE………………CLICK HERE

 

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

HUMBUG’S WEEK

Friday June 15th 2018. I’ve had a brilliant week, I’ve been away sailing my boat on the Norfolk Broads for a few days. Some parts of the Broads are touristy and utter crap but there are plenty of hidden gems once you know where to look. Pulling up in an old sailing boat somewhere like this to spend the night is just heaven really. Especially if there’s a good pub nearby.

I got back last night having not thought about my investments for even ten seconds whilst I was away. Logged on and thought wow I must go away more.

TO READ MORE…………CLICK HERE

 

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

FAGIN’S WEEK

Friday 15th June 2018. Fagin’s had a steady but still nicely profitable week. He opened a long position in Rolls Royce (RR.) on the 11th of May at £8.43p, sat watching it meander around for five weeks and closed out yesterday at £8.69p for a profit of £667 or 3.17%.

TO READ MORE………………CLICK HERE

 

 

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

HUMBUG’S SMOKING

 

Friday 8th June 2018. Last Friday in my weekly and monthly review of the Great British Trade off I said that May (the month not Teresa) had gone too well. I asked the question, ‘As an investor seeking financial independence how can you have too good a month?’

The answer obviously is when the results are way over trend and a correction is not only overdue but extremely likely in normal circumstances.

Well what can I say? This week has been an absolute stonker for me, and I’m beginning to wonder if we are operating in abnormal rather than normal circumstances. My funds are spread around all over the world and 13 of the 15 I currently hold are up.

TO READ MORE…………………..CLICK HERE

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

FAGIN GETS A PRESENT

This posting is not investment advice in any way shape or form, it is simply a record of our trades and investments. Please do not copy anything we do or have done, always make your own decisions and do your own research.

Tuesday June the 15th 2018. Is it Fagin’s birthday? Answer, no it just feels like it. As you may remember he snatched a quick profit of £472 out of Bodycote PLC (BOY) a few weeks ago.

TO READ MORE…………………….CLICK HERE

 

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF

HUMBUG’S CHINESE ODYSSEY

(THE SLOPE OF HOPE!)

Monday June the 4th 2018. In my quest for FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE and the FINANCIAL FREEDOM that that brings, I invest in an unusual way. Rather than spend hours doing fundamental analysis (which I’m useless at) I out-source individual share selection to the funds I invest in and then pick those funds purely on technical grounds.

I’m a momentum investor and the difficulty with that, is deciding which fresh up moves are likely to develop into a decent trend and which ones to avoid because they’re going to fizzle out prematurely.

As Fagin my opponent in the trading competition THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF is wont to say, any bloody fool can look at the middle of the chart and tell you what you should have done. The hard part is doing it in real time at the right hand edge of the chart.

Obviously, it’s the right hand edge of the chart that I work with and its interesting how often a sell off followed by a pivot round and a few weeks of upward momentum as the price crosses up first through the six week moving average and then the two week one herald the start of a new trend.

TO READ MORE………………….CLICK HERE

 

Friday June 1 2018 

FAGIN’S IN THE MONEY

It’s been a good week for me. My quest for FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE got a little bit closer. On Tuesday the 29th I took a large long position in Evraz PLC (EVR)  13000 shares at 488. It made the classic chart pattern I look for, the green arrows mark the action.

As you see I bought in a little above Tuesday’s closing price and sold out a bit below today’s high.

My closing price was 519 for a gross profit of £3978. 6.27% on capital in four days.

Chart of Evraz PLC

I wonder what June will bring, hopefully more pockets to pick. I’ll keep you updated here and also at www.diyinvestor.net as I battle both Humbug and myself in this drive for financial freedom.

Yours, Fagin

Friday June 1 2018

HUMBUG’S WEEKLY AND MONTHLY NUMBERS

This month has been good, very good in fact. If I’m being realistic its actually been too good. When you’re an investor seeking financial independence, how can you have a month that’s too good? Well in the same way as you can be too pretty when you’re a girl looking to meet the love of your life.

A friend of mine is so drop dead gorgeous that her beauty actually deters what she considers to be the right sort of men from approaching her. She only gets pestered by flash tossers, as the nice guys think they’ve got no chance and don’t even try their luck.

My view is that you can have too good a month when you’re up over 5% because its way over trend and it isn’t going to continue.

However you need the really good months to counter the totally crap ones so best I don’t whinge too much. When your investing and looking to grow wealth for the long term aim of being financially free you can’t control the market.

Sure you position yourself as best you can, but then its largely out of your control.

I’ve said it before, when its going great for me and I get numbers like I did in May  I don’t tell myself how clever I am. And when it goes badly wrong like it did for me in March I don’t self harm.

Lets first of all look at this week. I’m holding fifteen funds and ten of them are down on the past seven days. The worst performer is the Neptune Emerging Markets Fund down 1.22%. At one point mid-week it flirted with the red line (6 week moving average, which is my take profit/stop loss line) and it had me worried as its an £8k position that’s slightly under water. However in the last couple of days its dragged itself a little bit away from the relegation zone.

Chart of the Neptune Emerging Markets Fund

Interestingly, even though two thirds of my portfolio are down on the week, I’m actually up in money terms because most of the percentage declines are very small and some of the gains are quite chunky. The best performer is the Baillie Gifford American Fund up 1.67% on the week. Whether you like him or loathe him, THE TRUMP BUMP is still very much in evidence in the US markets.

Chart of the Baillie Gifford American Fund

My gain on the week is £323 or .33%.

Turning back to the monthly numbers again and all fifteen funds are up in May. In a similar situation to the weekly positions, close to the bottom of the list the second worst performing fund was the Neptune Emerging Markets Fund which was up 1.43% and well out front the best performer again was the Baillie Gifford American Fund up a fraction under 10 percent at 9.93%.

I’ve not sold anything this month, but on the 8th of May I invested £15k into three Chinese Funds. £5k into each of the Gam Star China Equity Fund, the Old Mutual China Equity Fund and the Fidelity China Consumer Fund. On average they’re up 3.4% since I bought them. As a side issue, I’m in the middle of writing a reflective piece about China that I’ll post on Monday.

The numbers for the month are £4747 up, a gain of 5.1%. Sooner or later there’s going to be a correction and prices will retrace, its the natural ebb and flow of the markets. The question I’m asking myself is will I get back to the £100k opening stake I had at the start of the GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF competition fourteen months ago, before it happens?

So, for the coming week once again Masterly Inactivity, as the markets have got away from me there’s nothing for me to buy into. Nothing for me to sell either, but the Neptune Emerging Markets Fund is currently my weakest holding and is beginning to have my full attention.

Finally, sorry there haven’t been any podcasts lately. We have a technical problem that hopefully will be sorted in the next couple of weeks.

 

Friday May 25 2018

HUMBUG AND FAGIN WEEKLY REPORT W/E 25TH MAY 2018

This posting is not investment advice in any way shape or form, it is simply a record of our trades and investments. Please do not copy anything we’ve done and always make your own decisions and do your own research.

Yes, say’s he punching the air. I’ve won again, this is beginning to become a habit and one that I like. Mind you my new resolution was to not take any notice of what Fagin did or didn’t do wasn’t it. Oh well, two weeks out of three, result. Not that I give a toss you understand.

Hello I’m Humbug welcome to our weekly report.

To be honest with you its almost a non report in that Fagin hasn’t reported any trades (either buying or selling) this week and all I did was watch my portfolio go up. Which is about as exciting as watching paint dry, but more profitable.

As you may remember (and as reported last Sunday May 20) Fagin forgot to report the sale of a trade that was closed out automatically at the end of last week and so we carried the figures into this week. The trade in question was one of his classic  ‘pick the market’s pocket’ trades. It was Bodycote PLC (BOY)  and it produced a gross profit of £472 for him in fairly short order.

The green arrow marks the sale point last Friday when it hit it’s target. As you can clearly see with his trades, timing is sometimes absolutely crucial both on the way in and the way out. Sometimes not so much so.

The way he see’s it is: set a sensible fairly conservative (with a small ‘c’) target, reach target, exit with the money and be happy. He does tweek this sometimes with a tight trailing stop, luckily not this time.

In this case in the short term the conservative target of 948p was exactly the right call, as the price has retraced from the high he sold at. However if we look at one of his other trades from last week its a very different story.

Games Workshop (GAW) was closed out on Thursday the 17th at 2570p for a gross profit of £1288. But as you see……………………………….

It just kept on going up. If he still held he’d be £2850 richer. I haven’t actually talked to him about this trade, but I know exactly how he aims to operate. Will he be annoyed with himself? Nah, but if he starts finding a lot of these he might set a target and if the price action looks strong stay in with a tight trailing stop as he did very successfully a number of times last year.

Its never easy to know what to do for the best. We both feel strongly that the path for us, is have a system (with a few discretionary elements) , make sure the system has an edge………………………………and then enjoy the results.

Fagin plays a probability game, with he believes, the odds slightly in his favour.

Me? I to used to also be a short term trader, but just over a year ago I decided I wanted an easier life, so now all I do is invest in funds. Albeit I don’t sit and hold them for ever and a day, I monitor their progress once a week and shuffle my portfolio as I think right. (mind you, I not always am)

As I was saying in last week’s report, there are more similarities between Fagin’s and my  systems than first meet the eye, in that we’re both looking for pivot points and then rising momentum.

So, how’s my week been? Well stressful beyond belief. My main computer with all my data on it was crushed by a routine Microsoft update, it froze and locked me out. DUH. Let me tell you, it’s taken a couple of days for my sense of humour to recover and I still haven’t got my computer back in one piece.

But its still been a another good week for me in this years GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF. The fourth on the trot to be precise. This week I’m up by £751 taking my running profit for the year to just under £5k.

It’s been a week of solid numbers rather than spectacular gains, twelve of my fifteen fund holdings are up, the best by 2.2% and the worst down by .3%. The star performer being the Fundsmith Equity Fund up 2.2% 

The worst result comes from the Marlborough UK Micro Cap Growth Fund, but as I’ve only got £1k invested in it and it’s only down a third of one percent, its no great disaster.

Where are the markets heading in the coming week, who knows I certainly don’t. The only certain fact is neither they nor my portfolio will just keep going up without a pause. Things now look a bit toppy with a correction due, the question is when?

Masterly inactivity for me again in the coming week, nothing to buy as the market’s got away from me and nothing to sell as everything is currently doing very well.

To recap I win with a running gain of £751, Fagin banks a gross profit of £472 from the sale of Bodycote (BOY) carried forward from last week to this.

 

 

 

Wednesday May 23 2018

COMPUTER SAY ‘NO’ HUMBUG IS PISSED OFF

I’m slowly calming down having totally lost my sense of humour when my main lap-top froze and locked me out after what should have been a simple routine update.

To begin with I was consumed by it and all the problems it is/will cause me and the feeling of impotence that comes when you just don’t know what your doing, or what to do and you also don’t want to make the situation worse.

That it happened very late yesterday evening after a long day and that I got very little sleep as a result of it didn’t help my mood greatly either..

However in spite of my anger I’m very aware that thousands and thousands of people are having a much much worse day than I am. Every thing is relative is it not. A ‘little’ bit of computer trouble is not up there at the top of a list of worst things that can possibly happen.

To say that you should always turn adversity to advantage is too glib by half as well as being trite. But that doesn’t stop it being true and is obviously what I need to do.

The first priority is get my old spare  lap-top loaded with all my investment data, this alone is probably half a day’s work. In the short term I’ll accept that the details on my brokers site are gospel until such time as I can get the main computer unlocked.

Luckily I’ve always had the view that in order to have some safety cover I need to buy a new computer before the old one is completely ready for the knackers yard. So when I bought the one that’s failed, some eighteen months ago, I did so while the old one was still operational.

In the short term the documents I can’t access are not a problem not least because I’ve got a really good memory and can remember the salient points of the more recent ones.  Also, almost all of my correspondence is by email which obviously I can still get either on my phone or the old computer so that’s no problem at all.

Sharescope allow their customers to have the programmes they subscribe to on two machines simultaneously, which I’ve always done for safety. But the huge mistake I’ve made is not keeping the spare version updated with my trades/investments/watch lists and personalised graphs.

With hindsight this has been a huge mistake, that I’ve made because of the time it takes to update not once but twice and not only for THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF account but also for my other accounts and those of the three family members whose investments I look after.

To paraphrase a great quote from Stelios Haji-Ioannou the founder of Easy Jet, who said ‘if you think safety is expensive, try an accident’ I’m now very aware that ‘if I thought doing a daily backup of my data was time consuming, I should try loading a year’s worth all in one go, partly from memory’

DUH. Thinking the problem through calmly this morning  it’s not as bad as it seemed last night. To be honest I feel a little bit stupid, this sort of thing was always going to happen one day wasn’t it?

One of the facts of life is that computers go wrong, get stolen, get left somewhere, get dropped, get drinks poured into them etc etc.  I should have expected a major problem sooner or later and been backing up my market data every day without fail, either to a memory stick or my spare computer.

I’ve learnt my lesson,.I’m sure there’ll be other cock ups to contend with in the future, but I won’t get caught by this one again..

Sunday May 20 2018

FAGIN SELLS  BODYCOTE PLC (BOY) ON FRIDAY 18TH MAY 2018

Sorry this trade should have been recorded in Friday the 18th’s report, we’ll carry it into the coming week.

As Fagin reported on the 14th (posting further down this page) he was holding Bodycote PLC (BOY).

The trade was closed out automatically for him on Friday (which is why it got overlooked)  at his target price of 948p for a gross profit of £472.

 

Friday May 18 2018

HUMBUG AND FAGIN WEEKLY REPORT W/E 18TH MAY 2018

This posting is not advice in any way shape or form, its a record of our investments and trades. Please do not copy what we do, always DYOR.

After last weeks first ever victory for Humbug, Fagin smashes him this week, although for the third week running he had good numbers and his portfolio rose by just over 1% he still got wiped out.

Hello I’m Humbug and let me tell you competing with Fagin is like trying to stop a steamroller by standing in front of it.

I had what for an investor is a great week, but still no where near good enough to beat him. Oh well I made a £1k gain in seven days and my latest call on China has been dead right so far so there’s much to celebrate. I’ve come second yet again, but its not all bad.

Lets drill down into Fagin’s numbers:

His gross profit for the week is £3490. He sold out of the Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) on Thursday the 17th at 2570 for a profit of £1288

With the benefit of hindsight he sold at least a day early. Had he held until today’s close he would have made twice as much profit. Is he upset? Nah, he sets a stop and a target and if the price hits either he exits and moves on.

As always with his trades it was a technical play. He looked for a pivot point, found what he thought was one and placed his bet of 1000 shares.

Watkin Jones PLC (WJG) was a trade he entered on the 5th of April at 189 and also closed Thursday May the 17th at 203. 

The green arrow shows the entry, the red the exit. He always bets on exactly the same criteria, find a likely pivot point and set a sensible not too greedy target. The gross profit here was £1540.

His final monies this week come from a £662 dividend from a previous holding in the John Wood Group PLC (WG.)

As a side issue the arrows show his most recent trade and again with hindsight there was a lot more profit in the upswing than he made. Does he regret coming out too soon? As Sinatra famously sang ‘regrets I’ve had a few, but then again too few to mention’

So a brilliant week for Fagin, well done him.

Lets now take the drill to the Humbug numbers and see what happened to me.

Like I said earlier I had a good week. My portfolio increased for the third week running being up £1024 this week. For sure what goes up can come down, but so far in this second year of the GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF I’m no longer embarrassing myself week after week (even if I’m still losing) because  since the new round of the competition started on April the 5th  I’m up £4200.

The way Fagin and I operate has more similarities than are apparent at first glance. Firstly we are both Chart Followers  or Technical Analysts to use the posh name.  Although we’re trading different instruments, him shares me funds we’re looking for the same thing, namely pivot points. Him looking for very short term upward momentum after the pivot, me longer term upward trends. So we’re both seeking  upward momentum after a pivot and then betting our money when we think we’ve found it.

The three graphs of the three Chinese Funds I invested in last week the Gam Star China Equity Fund, the Fidelity China Consumer Fund and the Old Mutual China Equity Fund illustrate the point of what I’m doing quite well.

The price of all three came down below their six week moving average which is where I like to start hunting, pivoted round and started going back up first through  the six week average and then through the green two week moving average, which is my buying trigger.

The green arrows show my entry points in each case.

I’ve got no sales pending for the coming week and although as I said before I would like to be 100% invested I can’t see anything matching my criteria so have no purchases planned either.

I’ve obviously no idea how much longer this almost worldwide upswing is going to last, but I’m happy to ride on its coat tails for now.

To briefly recap. A good week for both of us, but even so a resounding win this week for Fagin.

 

Monday May 14 2018

FAGIN UPDATE

This posting is not advice in any way shape or form, its a record of our investments and trades. Please do not copy what we do, always DYOR.

The most important thing in life is to stop saying ‘I wish’ and start saying ‘I will’. Consider nothing impossible, then treat possibilities as probabilities. Charles Dickens.

I’ve made a reasonable start to the month making £3000+ trading BBA Aviation PLC (BBA), Wood Group PLC (WG.) and as reported in last weeks roundup Advanced Medical Solutions PLC (AMS).

I’m currently holding Bodycote PLC (BOY), Games Worshop Group PLC (GAW), Rolls Royce Group PLC (RR.) and Watkin Jones PLC (WJG) in my main GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF portfolio and am running a longer term experiment with a number of tiny positions as well. I’ll document these in more detail another day.

I found my recent trade in Advanced Medical Solutions PLC (AMS) psychologically challenging.

To my surprise, I’m still slightly smarting from the mistakes I made five months ago in January.

As a result I snatched at my profits in true Fagin style as AMS hit my target for a third time, even though I could see the momentum in the share was still very strong.

Last year I believe I’d have handled the trade differently, I’d have added a trailing stop in the face of such strength and held on for a bit longer.

I’m also a little downbeat as I sat and watched my usual staple rockets KAZ, EVR, PMO and HGM take off without me. Had I traded these babies instead of the slower stocks above I might well have tripled my profits in the last two weeks.

What happened is, I got fed up with being wiggled in and out of them in the last correction and took my eye off them………………………………………typically they shot off!

Still I mustn’t grumble, Humbug’s right when he says that here in THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF I pick the markets pocket and don’t aim to take the whole suit. Regular fast profits are a great way to build the capital for FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE. Lets not be greedy.

I hope this doesn’t sound like ‘sour grapes’, because I am grateful for the profits I’ve made so far this month.

I’m a bit of a purist like one of my hero’s, Arsene Wenger. I put pressure on myself to trade as well as I can and try to focus on the quality of the trade rather than the money.

I like to win, but I also like to win with style!

All of Fagin’s gang are lifelong Arsenal supporters. AFC have taught me to be careful with my capital. I’ve learnt not to spend £16 on a burger and chips at the ground, when I can get one for a fiver outside!

Well that’s it for this update. Congratulations to Arsene for everything he’s done for British Football and for all the entertainment over the last 22 years.

Also congratulations to Humbug for beating me for the first time ever last week. However he was lucky I didn’t liquidate my position in Watkin Jones PLC (WJG).

Yours, Fagin