THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF
Friday 8th June 2018. Last Friday in my weekly and monthly review of the Great British Trade off I said that May (the month not Teresa) had gone too well. I asked the question, ‘As an investor seeking financial independence how can you have too good a month?’
The answer obviously is when the results are way over trend and a correction is not only overdue but extremely likely in normal circumstances.
Well what can I say? This week has been an absolute stonker for me, and I’m beginning to wonder if we are operating in abnormal rather than normal circumstances. My funds are spread around all over the world and 13 of the 15 I currently hold are up this week.
Now here’s a thought I’ve not seen or read anywhere else.
I’M WONDERING OUT LOUD, ARE WE NOW HAVING A WORLD WIDE TRUMP BUMP?
In the US the TRUMP BUMP (where US shares are at or around all time highs because of the President’s policies) is widely reported and very real. It’s irrelevant whether you like or loathe the guy, the fact is if you give business’s tax breaks share prices will rise. Simples. Is the same thing now happening over much of the world for a different reason?
As we all know the markets are forward looking, so tomorrow’s news is in today’s prices.
Have the markets begun to price in Trump pulling off a deal and bringing North Korea into the so called civilised world? You know what? I think they might have done.
I wrote a few weeks ago that I thought if he did strike a good deal the markets would run up strongly over the summer. Is this what’s now happening?
AM I RIGHT DO YOU THINK? OR HAVE I GONE RAVING MAD?
Let me know what you think via our Twitter feed. Humbug&Fagin@:BritishTradeOff. Also on the subject of Twitter a shout out and big thank you to the 500 new followers we’ve gained in the last few weeks. We’ll try hard to make the stuff we tweet interesting, informative and relevant.
Oh well, but for whatever reason my funds are doing well.Really well. To be honest, as a momentum investor it doesn’t actually bother me why prices are going up, all I need to do is spot that they are and place my bets. My best performer is the Gam Star China Equity Fund up 3.1% this week.
GRAPH OF GAM STAR CHINA EQUITY FUND
The green circle shows where my system picked up on the rising momentum and when I placed my buying instructions. The other two China funds I bought at the same time are also doing extremely well. As are the Tech Funds and the US.
Last week I was fretting about the Neptune Emerging Markets Fund and reporting how close to the relegation zone it was. In the last couple of days of last week it dragged itself away from the wire and this week although its the fourth worst performer in my portfolio its still up. Almost 1% at.94% and is beginning to look a little safer. My £8k investment is all of £68 in profit. Wow.
GRAPH OF THE NEPTUNE EMERGING MARKETS FUND
I bang on about what goes up can come down and it sure can. But for now things are brilliant. In my drive to reach a financial independence with lots of noughts on the end things are looking good. My Great British Trade Off portfolio is up £1371, that’s 1.4% on the week and up £6645 that’s 7% since the start of our new competition year on April the 5th 2018.
Nothing to sell this week and nothing to buy either.
Tuesday June 5 2018
FAGIN GETS A PRESENT
This posting is not investment advice in any way shape or form, it is simply a record of our trades and investments. Please do not copy anything we do or have done, always make your own decisions and do your own research.
Is it Fagin’s birthday? Answer, no it just feels like it. As you may remember he snatched a quick profit of £472 out of Bodycote PLC (BOY) a few weeks ago.
But what is even better, is that the share went XD in the short time he was holding it and he received the dividend of £556.50p .yesterday.
A good start to his week, because lets face it, it’s always nice getting presents.
Monday June 4 2018
HUMBUG’S CHINESE ODYSSEY
(THE SLOPE OF HOPE!)
In my quest for FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE and the FINANCIAL FREEDOM that that brings, I invest in an unusual way. Rather than spend hours doing fundamental analysis (which I’m useless at) I out-source individual share selection to the funds I invest in and then pick those funds purely on technical grounds.
I’m a momentum investor and the difficulty with that, is deciding which fresh up moves are likely to develop into a decent trend and which ones to avoid because they’re going to fizzle out prematurely.
As Fagin my opponent in the trading competition THE GREAT BRITISH TRADE OFF is wont to say, any bloody fool can look at the middle of the chart and tell you what you should have done. The hard part is doing it in real time at the right hand edge of the chart.
Obviously, it’s the right hand edge of the chart that I work with and its interesting how often a sell off followed by a pivot round and a few weeks of upward momentum as the price crosses up first through the six week moving average and then the two week one herald the start of a new trend.
let’s be clear, if it happens, the new trend hasn’t started because of the price action. The price action is simply reflecting and predicting the results of the underlying market fundamentals.
It’s the same as the canary i